On November 25, the New York Times reported that President-elect Donald Trump intends to punish Americans by making them pay more for goods—including domestic manufacturing inputs—imported from Canada, China, and Mexico (our three largest trading partners) until the US wins the war on drugs.
Trump ignores the fact that illicit drugs are largely smuggled by US citizens through legal border crossings and sold to US citizens. He also misses the fact that tariffs are taxes on American consumers, not on foreign countries. The governments of Canada, China, and Mexico do not write checks to the US Treasury when American consumers and manufacturers buy products that Canadians, Chinese, and Mexicans make and sell to them.
The Times reported that Trump believes China can do a better job stopping the flow of Chinese-made fentanyl precursors to the transnational drug cartels located in Mexico, where they synthesize fentanyl in underground labs. But fentanyl precursors also come from India, Myanmar, and other parts of Southeast Asia. If China cracks down on domestic precursor labs, that means increased business for dealers in those countries. Waging a war on drugs is like playing a game of whack-a-mole.
What’s more, cracking down on fentanyl precursors may hasten drug traffickers’ shift to nitazene trafficking. Nitazenes are more dangerous and potent than fentanyl. They are derived from benzimidazole, a chemical used to make a host of drugs ranging from antacids like omeprazole and pantoprazole to antifungal agents to blood pressure medicines. Isotonitazene (“iso”) has been detected in overdose toxicology studies in the US since 2019 and is causing a “second wave” drug crisis in the UK.
In 1983, President Ronald Reagan famously said:
We and our trading partners are in the same boat. If one partner shoots a hole in the boat, does it make sense for the other partner to shoot another hole in the boat? There are those who say yes, and call it getting tough. I call it getting wet–all over.
We must plug the holes in the boat of open markets and free trade and set sail again in the direction of prosperity. No one should mistake our determination to use our full power and influence to prevent anyone from destroying the boat and sinking us all.
President-elect Trump intends to shoot holes in the bottom of our boat until Canada, China, and Mexico some way, somehow, help us win the endless war on drugs. During his campaign, Trump pledged to get the US out of endless wars. Instead, he will make Americans pay an endless tax.