Monday’s market opening was a doozy, with all three indices down nearly 2% in overnight trading. This was in response to President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China. Eventually, the indices were able to stem their losses as Trump paused the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, a strategic move aimed at pressuring trade negotiations.
Before the markets stabilized, however, I ran a few scans to identify stocks bucking the trend, looking for resilience amid fears of escalating trade tensions. Using StockCharts’ MarketCarpets, I quickly zoomed in on the Consumer Staples sector—one of the most tariff-sensitive areas likely to impact consumers.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS 1-DAY VIEW OF CONSUMER STAPLES. Walmart and Costco were among the top-gaining stocks in the sector. While both are exposed to tariff pressures, their positioning and scale allow them to mitigate the impact differently.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Following this, I chose to run a scan for Outperforming SPY: 52-Week Relative Highs to identify top-gaining stocks in the Consumer Staples sector.
FIGURE 2. SCAN RESULTS FOR OUTPERFORMING SPY: 52-WEEK RELATIVE HIGHS. Three big grocery stocks came up—COST, WMT, and SFM.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Here’s where it gets interesting:
Costco (COST) benefits from a loyal membership base, bulk discounts, and strong private label offerings, helping it absorb tariff-related costs. Its diversified supply chain and purchasing power further mitigate exposure.
Walmart (WMT) enjoys similar economies of scale and private label advantages, but if consumers trade down or cut discretionary spending, margin pressures could weigh on revenues.
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) sources some products locally but relies heavily on Mexican imports. If rising prices make customers more price-sensitive, they may shift to larger chains like Walmart or Costco. Among the three, SFM is most at risk in the event of a prolonged trade war with our local neighbors.
Let’s take a one-year look back using the StockCharts PerfCharts and see how these stocks performed relative to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), a sector proxy, and the S&P 500 ($SPX).
FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS ONE-YEAR VIEW OF XLP, COST, WMT, SFM, AND $SPX. Note how far SFM outperformed them all.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
I’ve written about SFM before, but I wasn’t expecting the stock to have outperformed its peers in the way that it has over the last year. All three stocks outperformed the S&P 500, while XLP underperformed the broader market.
Now it’s time to zoom in, starting with a daily chart of COST.
FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF COST. Relative to the Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index ($BPSTAP), Costco is remarkably bucking the trend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Costco is poised to break above resistance at $1,008, a move that would push the stock to an all-time high. But does it have the momentum to sustain the rally? While breadth in the sector looks weak, with just 29% of stocks flashing Point & Figure buy signals according to the Consumer Staples sector’s Bullish Percent Index (BPI), COST stands out as an exception alongside two other names. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the stock is entering overbought territory but still has room to run, while the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) has just cleared the bullish 70 threshold, although it has struggled to hold above the ultra-bullish 90 level.
If the breakout fails, key support levels are $908 and $870. Momentum and volume are critical indicators of any potential bounce.
Shifting to a daily chart of WMT, the stock has maintained a steady uptrend with minimal volatility, aside from a summer dip, a sharp November rally, and a December pullback. The stock recently cleared resistance at $96, propelling it toward an all-time high.
FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF WMT. The stock price is at all-time highs. Volume and momentum are giving slightly, which may signal a pullback. Watch the Keltner Channel bands that are overlaid on the price chart.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The SCTR score remains around 90, signaling strong technical momentum across multiple timeframes. Keep an eye on price as the RSI is signaling potential overbought territory.
In terms of volume, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates a surge in buying pressure, reinforcing bullish sentiment. If WMT pulls back, keep an eye on the Keltner Channel bands, which act as both a trend indicator and dynamic support/resistance levels. Additionally, the most recent swing low of around $90 could serve as a key support zone.
Now, the strongest performing stock of the bunch: Sprouts. Below is a daily chart of SFM.
FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF SFM. This stock is the outperformer of the bunch. Watch key support levels (blue dashed horizontal lines) should it pull back.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Sprouts Farmers Market has exhibited strong technical momentum throughout 2024, mirroring WMT’s bullish trajectory. With the stock breaking above $155 to reach an all-time high, the Money Flow Index (MFI) signals overbought conditions, hinting at a potential pullback. If selling pressure emerges, key support levels to watch include prior resistance at $155, a congestion zone between $138 and $143, and the major swing low around $125. While MFI confirms strong volume and momentum, it also suggests that the rally may be a bit stretched in the short term.
At the Close
Costco, Walmart, and Sprouts Farmers Market have outperformed their sector peers, defying broader weakness in the group. While strong sector performance usually provides a tailwind for individual stocks, the opposite scenario raises concerns that sector-wide pressure could eventually drag these leaders lower. Monitor their key levels closely, especially during pullbacks, to determine whether they present a buying opportunity or a signal to stay on the sidelines.
If some stocks, like COST, are too pricey to buy several positions outright, check out StockCharts’ OptionsPlay Strategy Center to discover alternative strategies that align with your directional bias and risk tolerances, allowing you to capitalize on market opportunities more efficiently.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.